Not If, But When
“Not If, But When” is a photographic survey of coastal metropolitan areas in the United States and Canada that, without intervention, face flooding from rising sea levels due to climate change. Locations are based on forecasts provided by Climate Central’s Surging Seas project, created using data published in 2015 by the National Academy of Sciences. The scenario assumes that the Paris Agreement target of 2 degrees Celsius or less of warming above pre-industrial levels is met, which would correspond to a 4.7 metre rise in sea level by the year 2200.
By one estimate, a rise of just 3 metres would inundate nearly 75,000 square kilometres of U.S. coastal land and displace more than 12 million residents. Another estimate pegs total U.S. economic losses resulting from a 1.8 metre rise at close to $1 trillion. A 2016 report by the United Nations Environment Programme suggests that current pledges may not even be enough to reach the Paris Agreement target. In 2017, the United States, the world's no. 2 carbon dioxide emitter, announced its intention to withdraw from the Agreement entirely.
Malibu Lagoon and Pacific Coast Highway, California
